Investigating changes in longitudinal associations between declining bus ridership, bus service, and neighborhood characteristics

Amid the recent transit ridership decline, gaining an understanding of the factors affecting ridership becomes crucial for transit agencies to utilize limited resources effectively. I use generalized linear multilevel negative binomial models to investigate the longitudinal relationship and changes in the associations between neigh-borhood-level bus ridership and a series of socio-economic and bus service factors in Philadelphia between 2014 and 2018. Data come from passenger boarding at bus stops in Philadelphia. Results show that the associations between bus ridership, population and the number of jobs, and the percent of zero-car households are positive, but weakened over time. The associations between ridership and bus service supply are inelastic. The findings have implications on transit agencies' resource allocation and service adjustments as they recover from the ridership and revenue losses during the COVID-19 pandemic while facing competition from new travel options such as Uber and Lyft.

The Pandemic Waves' Impact on the Crude Oil Price and the Rise of Consumer Price Index: Case Study for Six European Countries

This study examines the response of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in local currency to the COVID-19 pandemic using monthly data (March 2020–February 2022), comparatively for six European countries. We have introduced a model of multivariate adaptive regression that considers the quasi-periodic effects of pandemic waves in combination with the global effect of the economic shock to model the variation in the price of crude oil at international levels and to compare the induced effect of the pandemic restriction as well and the oil price variation on each country's CPI. The model was tested for the case of six emergent countries and developed European countries. The findings show that: (i) pandemic restrictions are driving a sharp rise in the CPI, and consequently inflation, in most European countries except Greece and Spain, and (ii) the emergent economies are more affected by the oil price and pandemic restriction than the developed ones.

FERTILIZERS USE EFFICIENCY: WESTERN BALKAN

У кризним ситуаци)ама, као што je текуки сукоб у Укра]ит, питате учинковитости инпута у полопривредно] производти поста]е врло знача]но. У том контексту, главни цил овограда jeутвр'ивате нивоа ефикасности примене 'убрива у землама Западног Балкана. Истовремено, фокус овог рада je здравле землишта у региону, као и зависност региона од увоза "убрива.. Резултати су показали да je ефикасност 'убрива века у региону него у ЕУ. Ме'утим, с обзиром на високу зависност од увоза и наjвjeроватниje продужете кризе, дати су одре'ени предлози за поболшате ситуацsе. Заклучци овог рада могу бити од користи креаторима полопривредне политике као и полопривредним произво'ачима.Alternate :In the case of the crisis, such as the current conflict in the Ukraine, the question of input effectiveness in agricultural production has become very important. In that context, the main objective of this paper is to find the level of fertiliser efficiency in the Western Balkan countries. The paper also aims to discuss health of the soil in the region and its dependence on fertilisers imports. Results showed that fertilizer use efficiency is higher in the region than in the EU. However, considering the high dependence on imports and the most likely prolongation of the crisis, certain suggestions for improving the situation were given. This conclusion can be useful for the creators of the agricultural policy as well as for agricultural producers.

Consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war: evidence from DAX, ATX, and FTSEMIB

PurposeThe Russian invasion of Ukraine generated unprecedented panic in the European financial system. As expected, the European Union (EU) felt most of the negative effects of the war due to geographical proximity to Ukraine and energy dependence on Russia. This study aims to investigate the influence of Brent crude oil (BCO), Dutch Title Transfer Facility Natural Gas, and CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) on Deutscher Aktien Index (DAX), Austrian Traded Index (ATX) and Milano Indice di Borsa (FTSEMIB). The German, Austrian and Italian equity indexes were chosen due to the heavy dependence of these countries on Russian gas and oil.Design/methodology/approachThe data cover the period from November 24, 2021, to June 24, 2022, including five months of the Russia–Ukraine war. To generate the intended results, vector autoregressive, structural vector autoregressive, vector error correction model, Johansen test and Granger causality test were used.FindingsThe results highlight that natural gas and the VIX carried negative effects on DAX, ATX and FTSEMIB. The BCO was expected to have influenced three selected equity indexes, while the results suggest that it was priced only in ATX.Originality/valueThis research provides modest evidence for the policymakers on the systemic risk that Russian gas has for the EU equity markets. From a managerial perspective, changes in oil and gas prices are a permanently integral part of portfolio risk analysis.

Dependence Analysis for the Energy Sector Based on Energy ETFs

This study investigates the effects of crude oil and natural gas future returns on energy stock portfolios. We consider returns of portfolios of energy companies approximated by energy ETFs and returns of Brent crude oil and natural gas contracts listed on the US market from January 2015 to September 2022. To study the relationship between Brent crude oil, natural gas, and ETFs, we apply Granger causality in mean and variance, Dynamic Conditional Correlation and the tail dependence-focused copula approach. The research hypothesis regarding the dependence between energy ETFs and the underlying energy risk factors—crude oil and natural gas, and therefore, the existence of hedging or diversification opportunities, was verified. Our empirical findings indicate that crude oil has a medium effect on energy ETFs, and for natural gas it is even lower in the analyzed period, so hedging opportunities are weak, but opportunities for diversification arise.

Assessing the Level of Energy Poverty Using a Synthetic Multidimensional Energy Poverty Index in EU Countries

The purpose of the article is to analyse the level of energy poverty in the EU member states for the period 2010–2020. The research was carried out on the basis of the author's Synthetic Multidimensional Energy Poverty Index created on the basis of the zero-unitarization method. The proposed index allowed for the integration of 4 out of 13 indicators provided for the study of energy poverty in the Recommendation of the European Commission 2020, and 1 selected by the authors. The assessment of changes in the level of energy poverty over time in 24 EU countries using the method used adds value compared to the assessment methods used so far in this area. Previous studies of energy poverty levels have focused on individual countries or small groups of countries. Rarely have such studies covered the majority of EU countries, and even more rarely have they been conducted over a long period of time. The study carried out showed significant differences in energy poverty levels among EU members. Results obtained not only reflect the progress of member countries in reducing energy poverty, but also allow for a discussion on future approaches regarding its reduction.

Effects of Alcohol-Blended Waste Plastic Oil on Engine Performance Characteristics and Emissions of a Diesel Engine

The current study aims to investigate and compare the effects of waste plastic oil blended with n-butanol on the characteristics of diesel engines and exhaust gas emissions. Waste plastic oil produced by the pyrolysis process was blended with n-butanol at 5%, 10%, and 15% by volume. Experiments were conducted on a four-stroke, four-cylinder, water-cooled, direct injection diesel engine with a variation of five engine loads, while the engine's speed was fixed at 2500 rpm. The experimental results showed that the main hydrocarbons present in WPO were within the range of diesel fuel (C13–C18, approximately 74.39%), while its specific gravity and flash point were out of the limit prescribed by the diesel fuel specification. The addition of n-butanol to WPO was found to reduce the engine's thermal efficiency and increase HC and CO emissions, especially when the engine operated at low-load conditions. In order to find the suitable ratio of n-butanol blends when the engine operated at the tested engine load, the optimization process was carried out by considering the engine's load and ratio of the n-butanol blend as input factors and the engine's performance and emissions as output factors. It was found that the multi-objective function produced by the general regression neural network (GRNN) can be modeled as the multi-objective function with high predictive performances. The coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and root mean square error (RSME) of the optimization model proposed in the study were 0.999, 2.606%, and 0.663, respectively, when brake thermal efficiency was considered, while nitrogen oxide values were 0.998, 6.915%, and 0.600, respectively. As for the results of the optimization using NSGA-II, a single optimum value may not be attained as with the other methods, but the optimization's boundary was obtained, which was established by making a trade-off between brake thermal efficiency and nitrogen oxide emissions. According to the Pareto frontier, the engine load and ratio of the n-butanol blend that caused the trade-off between maximum brake thermal efficiency and minimum nitrogen oxides are within the approximate range of 37 N.m to 104 N.m and 9% to 14%, respectively.

The Impact of CO2 Emissions and Energy Consumption on Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis

This study aims to examine the dynamic connection among economic growth, CO2 emissions, energy consumption, and foreign direct investments (FDIs). The panel section considers the period of 2000–2020 for 25 EU Member States excluding Malta and Croatia. The annual data are retrieved from the World Bank and Eurostat databases. The empirical analysis used estimation procedures such as first- and second-generation panel unit root tests (CIPS) and panel ARDL based on the three estimators PMG, MG, and DFE. The Hausman test indicated that the PMG estimator is the most efficient. The PMG and DFE estimators suggested that there exist only short-run causalities from CO2 emissions, energy consumption, and FDIs to GDP growth rate, while the MG estimator proved the existence of both short-run and long-run causalities. Three hypotheses on the positive correlation between the three regressors and GDP growth rate were in general confirmed. The identified causalities may represent recommendations for policymakers to stimulate the renewable energy sector to improve sustainable development.

Intensification of the Prices Volatility for Oil and Natural Gas

Energy prices are generally more volatile than the prices of other commodities. This is because short-term energy demand responds more quickly to the impact of economic growth than to price changes. This paper aims to analyse this phenomenon. Therefore, when an energy shock occurs, an important price change may be necessary to influence the market. Currently such shock has been caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has produced the biggest sustained change in demand since World War II. In the medium to long term, energy prices will rise if investment will not be on an upward trend, which seems unlikely given the current environmental protection guidelines adopted by many countries around the world. In our paper we argue that supply and demand shocks and high price volatility are likely to continue to weigh on the energy market and the global economy.

Pathways to Carbon-Free Transport in Germany until 2050

The transport sector has to be widely decarbonized by 2050 to reach the targets of the Paris Agreement. This can be performed with different drive trains and energy carriers. This paper explored four pathways to a carbon-free transport sector in Germany in 2050 with foci on electricity, hydrogen, synthetic methane, or liquid synthetic fuels. We used a transport demand model for future vehicle use and a simulation model for the determination of alternative fuel vehicle market shares. We found a large share of electric vehicles in all scenarios, even in the scenarios with a focus on other fuels. In all scenarios, the final energy consumption decreased significantly, most strongly when the focus was on electricity and almost one-third lower in primary energy demand compared with the other scenarios. A further decrease of energy demand is possible with an even faster adoption of electric vehicles, yet fuel cost then has to be even higher or electricity prices lower.

Relative Prices of Ethanol-Gasoline in the Major Brazilian Capitals: An Analysis to Support Public Policies

The use of biomass as an energy source has advanced in recent decades, given the scientific evidence that it is a solution to the environmental problems faced globally. In this context, biofuels derived from biomass have a prominent role. Among the countries where this alternative is the most promising, Brazil stands out, just behind the USA. It is, therefore, necessary to assess whether such a replacement is economically viable. For such an assessment, the behavior of the relative price of bioethanol/gasoline is crucial. In the present work, the degree of temporal persistence of relative prices, considering the existence of shocks to which they are exposed, is evaluated, considering 15 important Brazilian capitals, via the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). The degree of correlation is also evaluated through the detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) between fuel prices in São Paulo, the capital of the most populous state and main producer of bioethanol, with the capitals of the 14 states selected for the analysis. The period of analysis takes place between 2004 and 2020. The use of DCCA with sliding windows was recently proposed and we also evaluate DFA dynamically in this way, and this, together with an extended sample in the context of Brazilian fuel prices, represents the main innovations of the present work. We found that the degree of persistence varies significantly depending on the capitals analyzed, which means that price variations are localized and demand regional stimulus policies. Furthermore, it was found that the correlation with São Paulo is less intense in the most geographically distant capitals. Such evidence is important and complementary to infer how integrated the national bioethanol market is, in order to support public policies aimed at its consolidation.

Development Procedure for Performance Estimation and Main Dimensions Calculation of a Highly-Boosted Ethanol Engine with Water Injection

The management of the global energy resources has stimulated the emergence of various agreements in favor of the environment. Among the most famous are the Conference of Parties (COP) and Route 2030, which aim to limit global warming to 1.5 °C by reducing the energy consumption and global emission levels. In order to comply with the international standards for energy consumption and pollutant emissions, the Brazilian government has been promoting the expansion of biofuels in the national energy matrix. Considering this scenario, the development of a novel internal combustion engine for the exclusive use of ethanol as a fuel, equipped with state-of-the-art technologies and employing modern design concepts, consists of an innovative and promising pathway for future Brazilian mobility, from both environmental and technological outlooks. In this sense, this work presents a method to determine the main engine dimensions as part of the initial process for a new ethanol prototype engine development. The Brazilian biofuel was selected due to its physicochemical properties, which allow the engine to achieve higher loads, and also due to its large availability as a renewable energy source in the country. Furthermore, a port water injection system was fitted to the engine in order to assist the combustion process by mitigating the knock tendency. The predicted overall engine performance was obtained by carrying out a GT-PowerTM 1D-CFD simulation, whose results pointed to a maximum torque of 279 Nm from 2000 to 4000 rpm and an indicated peak power of 135 kW at 5500 rpm. With a maximum water-to-fuel ratio of 19.2%, the engine was able to perform its entire full load curve at the MBT condition, a fact that makes the WI approach along with the ethanol fuel a very attractive solution. As a result of the specific design and optimization of each geometric parameter for this unique ethanol engine, a maximum indicated fuel conversion efficiency of 45.3% was achieved. Moreover, the engine was capable of achieving over 40% of the indicated fuel conversion efficiency in almost its entire full load curve.

Modelling the Dynamic Interaction between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Commodity Prices in India: The Dynamic Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

This study examines the dynamic interaction between oil, natural gas, and prices with Indian economic policy uncertainty (EPU). The study finds that gold prices and industrial production are fundamental drivers of Indian economic policy uncertainty in both the short and long runs, using a dynamic autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model with monthly data ranging from January 2003 to July 2020. Gold prices are positively related to the Indian EPU, while industrial production is negatively related to it. Thus, investors in the Indian economy should use gold as a hedge for portfolio diversification and as a safe haven during an economic crisis. We also find a significant positive interconnection between gold prices and crude oil prices in both the short run and the long run, while the significant positive impact of natural gas prices on crude oil prices manifests only in the long run. The evidence also indicates that the EPUs of the US and Europe positively affect the Indian EPU, while the EPU of China does not have a significant effect. Higher crude oil prices are associated with higher gas prices, whereas higher gold prices are negatively associated with the natural gas price and vice versa. Furthermore, the evidence shows that the Indian EPU does not have a significant effect on the changes in the prices of goods.

Export Growth - Fuel Price Nexus in Developing Countries: Real or False Concern?

This paper investigates the impact of domestic fuel price increases on export growth in a sample of 77 developing countries over the period 2000-2014. Using a fixed-effect estimator and the local projection approach, we find that an increase in domestic gasoline or diesel price adversely affects real non-fuel export growth, with the impact phasing out within two years after the shock. The impact is mainly noticeable in countries with a high-energy dependency ratio and where access to electricity is limited. Further, large fuel price shocks do not seem to lead to disproportionately large changes in exports, suggesting that neither the gradualism nor the shock therapy approach in fuel subsidy reforms dominates. In countries where the export sector is vulnerable to fuel price shocks, appropriate mitigating measures should be designed to smooth the transition to higher fuel prices.

OPTIMAL INVESTMENT SCENARIOS FOR THE POWER GENERATION MIX DEVELOPMENT OF IRAQ

This study is about finding an optimal investment scenario for developing Iraqs electricity generation mix. This study uses the Markowitz portfolio method to optimize Iraqs electricity generation mix. The study model takes into account the costs associated with each technology used to generate power and the risks of using that technology. The scope of the study focuses on technologies involved in the electricity mix, which are gas turbines, thermal, diesel, and hydro power in addition to the electricity generated through independent power producers (IPPs) and imported electricity. An optimal investment scenario where the costs and risks are balanced is proposed. This scenario can reduce the current costs of electricity production by 39 percent as well as maintaining the risk at its current value. The contributing shares of technologies involved in the scenario include using 47 percent gas turbine, 28 percent IPPs and imported electricity, 19 percent thermal, 4 percent diesel, and 2 percent hydro power.

Price and Volatility Transmissions among Natural Gas, Fertilizer, and Corn Markets: A Revisit

In this paper, we revisit price and volatility transmission among natural gas, fertilizer, and corn markets;an important issue was explored in previous work. An update of the results is urgently needed due to the recent enormous price volatility in the commodities, fertilizer, and energy markets. We followed the same methodology as previous work and used the vector error correction model and the multivariate generalized autoregressive heteroskedasticity model, but we adopted a new methodology to gather higher frequency data for fertilizer to estimate the interactions and examine the mechanisms between these market prices. Our results are consistent with previous research showing that natural gas price returns in the short-term are significantly affected by its lagged returns from itself and corn markets, and it will be affected by its lagged return sand fertilizer markets. However, we did not find a significant relationship among fertilizer, corn, and natural gas markets from May to November 2021. Moreover, the lagged conditional volatility of corn prices will affect the conditional volatility in the natural gas market but not vice versa.

Chemical Recycling of Plastic Marine Litter: First Analytical Characterization of The Pyrolysis Oil and of Its Fractions and Comparison with a Commercial Marine Gasoil

A detailed molecular fingerprint of raw pyrolysis oil from plastic wastes is a new research area. The present study focuses for the first time on the chemical recycling of plastic marine litter;we aim to chemically characterize the obtained raw pyrolysis oil and its distillates (virgin naphtha and marine gasoil) via GC-MS and FT-IR. For all samples, more than 30% of the detected compounds were identified. 2,4-dimethyl-1-heptene, a marker of PP pyrolysis, is the most represented peak in the chemical signature of all the marine litter pyrolysis samples, and it differentiates commercial and pyrolysis marine gasoil. The presence of naphthalenes is stronger in commercial gasoil, compared to its pyrolysis analog, while the opposite holds for olefins. The overlap between the two molecular fingerprints is impressive, even if saturated hydrocarbons are more common in commercial gasoil, and unsaturated compounds are more common in the gasoil derived from pyrolysis. A technical comparison between the commercial marine gasoil and the one obtained from the marine litter pyrolysis is also attempted. Gasoil derived from marine litter fully complies with the ISO8217 standards for distillate marine fuel. On the other hand, the virgin naphtha is particularly rich in BTX, ethylbenzene, styrene, and alpha olefins, which are all important recoverable platform chemicals for industrial upcycling.

Risk perception and oil and gasoline markets under COVID-19.

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) exposed individuals to a great uncertainty about its health and economic ramifications, especially in the early days and weeks of the outbreak. This study documents oil and gasoline market implications of individuals' behavior upon such uncertainty by analyzing the relationship between Google search queries related to COVID-19-information search that reflects one's level of concern about the subject (risk perception)-and the performance of oil and gasoline markets during the pandemic. The empirical analysis based on daily data and a structural vector autoregressive model reveals that a unit increase in the popularity of COVID-19 related global search queries, after controlling for COVID-19 cases, results in 0.083% and 0.104% of a cumulative decline in Dow Jones US Oil & Gas Total index and New York Harbor Conventional Gasoline Regular spot price, respectively, after one day, 0.189% and 0.234% of a cumulative decline after one week, and 0.191% and 0.237% of a cumulative decline after two weeks. The reaction of Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices to the spike in COVID-19 related online searches is found to be statistically insignificant, which can be explained by oil price pass-through into gasoline spot price.